Another Year and Another Official Lineup

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Well like last year I have less information than usual at this point for predictions, as SAG (the only acting precursor that gives any direct information with actually overlapping voters in terms of nomination) did not readjust their schedule for some reason. Of course last year I did relatively well, only off by one with each lineup, so maybe it is best this way. Anyway, you have the top three of Smith, Cumberbatch and Washington that seem safe. Smith the populist (though his film flopped, however par for course with almost all Oscar contenders) Cumberbatch the critical darling (which has been proved true) and Washington (the academy darling). The latter hasn't been killing it, however his film has yet to hit wide, but he's Washington. He got in for Roman J. Israel, and typically gets in with the right role and reviews. He has both of those, so I'm not going to doubt him, though it has been awhile since  a Shakespearean performance made it, however Washington definitely seems like the guy to break that trend. Then there are really I feel only 4 contenders left who are probably vying for the last two spots. The Academy golden boys and the musical golden boys. The former being DiCaprio and Cooper, who the academy loves, however are showing weakness in the meaningless precursors, and the latter being Garfield and Dinklage who have done well so far. I go with DiCaprio now, because sadly I can only hope Don't Look Now will flop with the academy but must prepare for the worst. Also while Cooper's role is very showy actually, it is showier in a subtler way than DiCaprio's. Out of Dinklage and Garfield, Dinklage I'd feel more willing to predict if his Thrones tenure had ended sooner and on better circumstances. It isn't quite Cranston with Trumbo, who I think definitely ensured his nomination through Breaking Bad. Garfield has a banner year, plus I feel there may be some Sondheim indirect goodwill of some sort. I think of the four you could shuffle them several ways however. Maybe Cyrano's late break helps as well. Maybe it is both musicals in favor of the two academy favorites? Or the other way around, we shall see. 

Supporting Actor seems "academy" thin, in terms of contenders they'll consider, then again we haven't seen SAG, so this could get seriously shaken up. Smit-McPhee is the critical darling so far, and seems safe enough. He's about equal with Hinds in the right role in the right film. I'd actually go Dornan for the same film next, as the Academy after that 25 year hiatus has decided they're cool with doubling down in supporting actor. After that I think it is Troy Kotsur based on his success so far, and seems likely even if his film flops otherwise. Fifth spot though, hands up, as I could see so many films having above the line goose eggs. Jared Leto, maybe. Jenkins for The Humans, doesn't seem like it, same with Isaacs for Mass, SAG would be a must for all three I'd say. Simmons for Ricardos? Maybe, but he'd seem like someone to get SAG then miss out. Cooper as a long shot (and if you want to say "wishful thinking" fair enough), but he is Cooper and his role definitely makes an impression. If the film is big, and actress is too tight, it ought to get in somewhere in the acting lineups I think. But sadly I have to be putting someone from Don't Look Up in, as it is a legitimate trend of DiCaprio getting in his supporting actors (since it has happened with ALL of his lead nominations), particularly when the corresponding Tom Hardy, Jonah Hill and Alan Alda nominations were all late breaking "dark horses" in those respective years. Given this actually made me considering switching to Cooper or Dinklage for fifth in lead, in order to be able to ignore the trend. However I won't and because Rob Morgan and to a lesser extent Jonah Hill are typically favored in the film by those who dislike the film, therefore I have to go with the man those who love the film love, therefore must predict Mark Rylance's second Oscar nomination.

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